Recently, the paper entitled “The impact of public health emergencies on hotel demand - Estimation from a new foresight perspective on the COVID-19”, was accepted and published by Annals of Tourism Research, the top journal of the tourism discipline. This paper was jointly completed by doctoral student He Lingyang, Professor Li Hui, Dr. Bi Jianwu, and two collaborators in other universities.

This paper proposes a new foresight approach to estimate the impact of public health emergencies on hotel demand. The forecasting-based influence evaluation consists of four modules: decomposing hotel demand before an emergency, matching each decomposed component to a forecasting model, combining the predictions as the expected demand after the emergency, and estimating the impact by comparing actual demand against that predicted. The method is applied to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on Macao's hotel industry. The empirical results show that: 1) the new approach accurately estimates COVID-19's impact on hotel demand; 2) the seasonal and industry development components contribute significantly to the estimate of expected demand; 3) COVID-19's impact is heterogeneous across hotel services.

Annals of Tourism Research is the top journal in the field of tourism management, with an impact factor of 9.011, and is one of the three ABS 4-star journals. It is reported that the high-level research results carried out by Dr. He Lingyang in the early stage have been published in Tourism Management, which is the second time that the high-level tourism management research work he has completed. In recent years, our college is committed to building an academic atmosphere and environment that supports high-level tourism management scientific research, and guiding doctoral students to stay away from the impetuous scientific research mentality. The high-level research work led by more and more doctoral students in the college has been recognized by international scholars in the area of tourism management, which means that the atmosphere of high-level scientific research in the discipline of tourism management is gradually taking shape.

（Translate：Bi Jianwu；Proofreading：Liang Sai）